February 2025 – Market Update
New year, more info!
As there seems to be no limit to the volume of “exciting headlines” in today’s news streams helping to keep everyone on their toes, I thought it might be helpful to share a bit of the analytics we use while managing your portfolios (as well as sharing some interesting historical bits) to hopefully bring a bit of objective perspective to all the noise we hear out there.
With that in mind, I’m thinking this market update might become a regular post (Monthly Market Brief?) We’ll see how the reception goes – so please, bounce us back a note and let us know what you think of the first edition. Here goes…!!!
So, with January behind us there’s some interesting (and POSITIVE) news to share, so let’s get right to it with February’s “Inverse Traffic Light” (the name kinda speaks-for-itself) chart:
- The stock market still remains in the “Green Zone,” marked by the two summer highs – and the two fall lows.
- The bottom of the “Caution Zone” for the stock market still resides at the spring 2024 lows, which took place after a multi-week correction to the tune of just over -10%.
- …and this is still where the “Danger Zone” sits, just south of 5,000 on the S&P500.
Additionally, the stock market is tracking along with what we’d expect in a post-election year, with January delivering positive gains for the month.
The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock
exchanges in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
Speaking of January being a positive month, here’s one that will blow your mind…
Going back to 1950, if the month of January was positive in any given year, the S&P500 was up for the year, to the tune of +16.9% on average. However, if January was a down month, the average performance for the year was a LOSS of -1.8%! Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, but it sure will be interesting to see how 2025 plays out…
All that good news aside, we always need to remember the stock market doesn’t go up in a straight, smooth, diagonal line, right?
In fact, the 1st quarter of a post-election year tends to be the worst of the four quarters and February and March tend to be the weakest of those first months.
So, from a seasonal standpoint, we’re now facing the two toughest months on average, so don’t be surprised if you see negative numbers on your accounts in the near term. In fact, I’d expect it! Feel free to reach out with any questions about this report and let us know if you found it useful! AND please feel free to pass it along to your closest friends, relatives, and colleagues if you think they would benefit.
For those that would like a 2 nd opinion on their retirement plan or investment portfolio, head over to www.NicoteraWealth.com, and click on the button that says “See if we’re right for you,” answer the questionnaire, and we’ll reach out to get an introduction call set up at a time that’s convenient for you. As always, thank you to you, our clients – our “extended family” – for your continued trust and confidence. We are here to help, so please reach out with any questions, concerns or if you’d just like to chat! You can reach us directly at 518-877-6600 or via email at leo@nicoterawealth.com / austin@nicoterawealth.com.
Talk soon!
-Leo & Austin
PS And while you’re here check out our new website! www.NicoteraWealth.com
Disclosure: This piece is for informational purposes only and contains opinions that should not be construed as facts. Information provided herein from third parties is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no reservation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Charts and graphs are for illustrative purposes only. Discussion of any specific strategy is not intended as a guarantee of profit or loss.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Objectives mentioned are not guaranteed to be achieved. All performance referenced is historical. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. Tactical allocation may involve more frequent buying and selling of assets and will tend to generate higher transaction costs. Investors should consider the tax consequences of moving positions more frequently. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC.