It Can Be an Opportunity.
And No, This Time Isn’t Different.
A couple of days ago I had a great discussion with a client who was curious about the current market volatility and how it might affect their family’s financial plan. It’s a conversation that often pops up when the markets get bumpy, so I thought it might be worth chatting about as the market seems to have a grumbly stomach, as of late.
Volatility can feel uncomfortable in real time. Headlines get louder, daily market swings feel more dramatic, Cramer gets more excited and it’s tempting to believe that “this time is different.” But history shows us that market volatility is not an anomaly. It’s just a normal part of investing.
In fact, the S&P 500 has experienced frequent and regular pullbacks, corrections, and bear markets over the decades. Yardeni Research’s long-term “history-of-the-index” shows repeated declines of 10% or more, even during periods that ultimately produced strong long-term positive returns. As of March 20, 2026, we’re again dealing with a volatile stretch. This time it’s driven largely by the war in the Middle East, the accompanying oil-price shocks and renewed uncertainty about inflation and interest rates. Currently, the S&P 500 is a little more than 5% below its January peak.
Bumpy, yes. Typical, yes. Should investors ignore the risk? No. BUT it does mean they should recognize that volatility is part of the price of admission for positive long-term market returns.
Check out the chart below – going all the way back to 1983 – noting the significant market declines and their triggers.
Chart Data: Historical corrections (declines of more than -10%) and bear-market (declines of more than -20%) drawdown data come from Yardeni Research & Reuters. Total and annualized returns data from Slickcharts.
What stands out is not just that declines happen, but how often they happen. Yet despite all of this, the market has still rewarded patient investors over time.
The Results:
From January 4, 1999 through March 19, 2026, the S&P 500’s total return including reinvested dividends was about +781.9%, or roughly 8.33% annualized.
From October 1983 through March 19, 2026 the dividend-reinvested S&P 500 shows an annualized return of about 11.5%.
THAT is the real lesson. We endured crashes, recessions, wars, inflation shocks, political crises, pandemics, and policy mistakes. And still, the long-term returns were excellent.
And no, we still can’t see the future. We don’t know what the next headline will be. We don’t know when the next correction will start or end. We don’t know whether the current volatility will fade quickly or continue for a bit. Today’s volatility is being driven mainly by three forces: geopolitical conflict and the oil shock, inflation and Fed-rate uncertainty, and a market that came into the year with elevated expectations.
But that uncertainty doesn’t mean volatility should be feared in an emotional way. It means investors should expect turbulence from time to time and plan for it in advance. It’s normal. It’s expected. Volatility is not a sign that investing is broken. Volatility is how investing works.
That’s why investor success is so dependent on sticking to a financial plan, especially when markets are volatile. Your plan should reflect your goals, time horizon, cash-flow needs, tax situation, and risk capacity. When markets are calm, almost everyone feels comfortable with their strategy. The real test comes when markets are bumpy. That’s when discipline (stick-to-it-tivity) matters most.
Every crisis can also be an opportunity. Volatility can create better valuations. It can create tax-planning opportunities. It can create rebalancing opportunities. It can create opportunities to put sidelined cash to work thoughtfully. It can even create the emotional reset that reminds investors why a plan with a disciplined strategy matters so much.
In other words, market declines are not pleasant, but they are productive for those who stay rational and prepared.
The worst mistake investors can make is treating volatility as a reason to abandon their plan, turning temporary market declines into permanent financial damage. A far better approach is to recognize that volatility is normal, expected, unavoidable, and manageable within a well-built strategy. The market’s long-term record has been strong not because it avoided crises, but because it moved through them.
So if the recent market volatility has you feeling a bit edgy, now is a great time to review your plan and strategy. Give us a call and let’s sit down together to revisit your plan and goals so you can stay on track – especially when the market gets bumpy.
As always, you can reach us directly at 518-877-6600 or via email at leo@nicoterawealth.com / austin@nicoterawealth.com.
Warmly,
The Nicotera Wealth Management Family
-Leo, Austin, Brooke & Olivia
Family-Owned. Family-Focused. Financially Strong.
…And please feel free to pass this newsletter along to your closest friends, relatives, and colleagues if you think they would benefit.
If you’d like a 2nd opinion on your retirement plan or investment portfolio, head over to www.NicoteraWealth.com, click on the button that says “See if we’re right for you,” answer the questionnaire, and we’ll reach out to get an introduction call set up in the calendar at a time that’s convenient for you.
Disclosure: This piece is for informational purposes only and contains opinions that should not be construed as facts. Information provided herein from third parties is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no reservation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Charts and graphs are for illustrative purposes only. Discussion of any specific strategy is not intended as a guarantee of profit or loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Objectives mentioned are not guaranteed to be achieved. All performance referenced is historical. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. Tactical allocation may involve more frequent buying and selling of assets and will tend to generate higher transaction costs. Investors should consider the tax consequences of moving positions more frequently. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC.